Friday, October 09, 2015

School Enrollment Projection by Grade

Addendum: Census figures indicate growth may slow in future due to decreasing percentage increase for 0 to 5 age group:
 


Total % number avg
2014 27,714 7.9% 2,189 438 0 to 5
2010 23,530 9.9% 2,329 466 0 to 5






2014 27,714 32.9% 9,118 507 0 to 18
2010 23,530 33.9% 7,977 443 0 to 18






2014 27,714 25.0% 6,929 533 6 to 18
2010 23,530 24.0% 5,647 434 6 to 18
Notice the actual number for the youngest age group, as well as the % of population, DECREASED from 2010 to 2014 .  These may have been reflected in the kindergarten enrollment last year of 420.  These relatively lower figures flow through the education years.  (note also grade 7 at 422, as another anomaly.)

****Click here for an School Enrollment Calculator***, to allow YOU to predict the growth and incoming Kindergarten enrollment, based on entered 2104 enrollment figures. (and these figures will also change)


Projection of growth are NOT simply 'if we have had a 3% growth in the past, it will continue at 3%' It, obviously, varies year to year and grade to grade. Certainly, the school district has a more sophisticated system, than simply the graph presented, which is not a straight 3%.  

But a table is far more illustrative.  Notice the enrollment figures for last year (base), while the average grade enrollment may be 460, or so, the range goes from low 420's in 1st and 7th grade to 498 in tenth.  
Even with assuming a 3% (or any number you'd like to put in the calculator) the annual increase varies from 4.7% to to 0% over various years – depending on the individual grade size as it flows through the years.

We can guess (or forecast) the incoming Kindergarten, but, generally the grade enrollment flows through the years.   BUT, as usual, please remember that Efficient Utilization of schools is a far better, quicker and SAVES a great deal of Taxpayers Money (Fiscal Responsibility)


-->
Growth Rate3.0%Enter YOUR guess






You can also modify the Kindergarten enrollment, if you have a crystal ball


Any changes made will remain, until the next change
Gradebasenext yr.Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
K450450400475470450480485500485485
1421434464412489484464494500515500
2474488447477424504499477509515530
3495510503460492437519514492525530
4436449525518474506450535529506540
Elem2,2762,3312,3382,3422,3492,3822,4112,5052,5292,5462,585


2.4%0.3%0.2%0.3%1.4%1.3%3.9%1.0%0.6%1.6%
5477491463541533488522464551545522
6495510506476557549503537478567561
Mid9721,0019691,0171,0911,0381,0241,0011,0281,1121,083


3.0%-3.3%5.0%7.2%-4.9%-1.3%-2.3%2.7%8.1%-2.6%
7422435525521491574566518553492584
8495510448541537505591583533570507
Int9179459731,0621,0281,0791,1571,1011,0871,0621,091


3.0%3.0%9.2%-3.3%5.0%7.2%-4.9%-1.3%-2.3%2.7%
9461475525461557553521609600549587
10498513489541475574570536627618566
11439452528504557489591587552646637
12464478466544519574504609604569665
High1,8621,9182,0082,0502,1082,1902,1852,3402,3842,3832,455


3.0%4.7%2.1%2.8%3.9%-0.2%7.1%1.9%-0.1%3.1%

6,0276,1946,2886,4726,5756,6886,7786,9477,0297,1027,214


2.8%1.5%2.9%1.6%1.7%1.3%2.5%1.2%1.0%1.6%
Line 2 is the estimated growth Rate for the entire period



Line 6 is the estimated size of incoming Kindergarten class



Col B is the enrollment from the previous year, moved up one grade
Col D – L automatically moves each grade enrollment up one year.
Projections are automatically calculated from the previous year, adjusted for the growth rate

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