School Enrollment Projection by Grade

Addendum: Census figures indicate growth may slow in future due to decreasing percentage increase for 0 to 5 age group:
 

	Total	%	number	avg
2014	27,714	7.9%	2,189	438	0 to 5
2010	23,530	9.9%	2,329	466	0 to 5
2014	27,714	32.9%	9,118	507	0 to 18
2010	23,530	33.9%	7,977	443	0 to 18
2014	27,714	25.0%	6,929	533	6 to 18
2010	23,530	24.0%	5,647	434	6 to 18

Notice the actual number for the youngest age group, as well as the % of population, DECREASED from 2010 to 2014 .  These may have been reflected in the kindergarten enrollment last year of 420.  These relatively lower figures flow through the education years.  (note also grade 7 at 422, as another anomaly.)

****Click here for an School Enrollment Calculator***, to allow YOU to predict the growth and incoming Kindergarten enrollment, based on entered 2104 enrollment figures. (and these figures will also change)

Projection of growth are NOT simply 'if we have had a 3% growth in the past, it will continue at 3%' It, obviously, varies year to year and grade to grade. Certainly, the school district has a more sophisticated system, than simply the graph presented, which is not a straight 3%.  

But a table is far more illustrative.  Notice the enrollment figures for last year (base), while the average grade enrollment may be 460, or so, the range goes from low 420's in 1^st and 7th grade to 498 in tenth.  
Even with assuming a 3% (or any number you'd like to put in the calculator) the annual increase varies from 4.7% to to 0% over various years – depending on the individual grade size as it flows through the years.

We can guess (or forecast) the incoming Kindergarten, but, generally the grade enrollment flows through the years.   BUT, as usual, please remember that Efficient Utilization of schools is a far better, quicker and SAVES a great deal of Taxpayers Money (Fiscal Responsibility)

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Growth Rate		3.0%	Enter YOUR guess
	You can also modify the Kindergarten enrollment, if you have a crystal ball
		Any changes made will remain, until the next change
Grade	base	next yr.	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
K	450	450	400	475	470	450	480	485	500	485	485
1	421	434	464	412	489	484	464	494	500	515	500
2	474	488	447	477	424	504	499	477	509	515	530
3	495	510	503	460	492	437	519	514	492	525	530
4	436	449	525	518	474	506	450	535	529	506	540
Elem	2,276	2,331	2,338	2,342	2,349	2,382	2,411	2,505	2,529	2,546	2,585
		2.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	1.4%	1.3%	3.9%	1.0%	0.6%	1.6%
5	477	491	463	541	533	488	522	464	551	545	522
6	495	510	506	476	557	549	503	537	478	567	561
Mid	972	1,001	969	1,017	1,091	1,038	1,024	1,001	1,028	1,112	1,083
		3.0%	-3.3%	5.0%	7.2%	-4.9%	-1.3%	-2.3%	2.7%	8.1%	-2.6%
7	422	435	525	521	491	574	566	518	553	492	584
8	495	510	448	541	537	505	591	583	533	570	507
Int	917	945	973	1,062	1,028	1,079	1,157	1,101	1,087	1,062	1,091
		3.0%	3.0%	9.2%	-3.3%	5.0%	7.2%	-4.9%	-1.3%	-2.3%	2.7%
9	461	475	525	461	557	553	521	609	600	549	587
10	498	513	489	541	475	574	570	536	627	618	566
11	439	452	528	504	557	489	591	587	552	646	637
12	464	478	466	544	519	574	504	609	604	569	665
High	1,862	1,918	2,008	2,050	2,108	2,190	2,185	2,340	2,384	2,383	2,455
		3.0%	4.7%	2.1%	2.8%	3.9%	-0.2%	7.1%	1.9%	-0.1%	3.1%
	6,027	6,194	6,288	6,472	6,575	6,688	6,778	6,947	7,029	7,102	7,214
		2.8%	1.5%	2.9%	1.6%	1.7%	1.3%	2.5%	1.2%	1.0%	1.6%
Line 2 is the estimated growth Rate for the entire period
Line 6 is the estimated size of incoming Kindergarten class
Col B is the enrollment from the previous year, moved up one grade
Col D – L automatically moves each grade enrollment up one year.
Projections are automatically calculated from the previous year, adjusted for the growth rate